BPI Technical Analysis: Northbound?

As PHISIX is nearing the 3600 support or probably going to rebound real soon (hopefully), BPI is approaching it's own support as well. In the chart below, BPI bounced back 4 times already in it's uptrend support in barely a year and is bound to hit it again for the fifth time. Should PHISIX bounce back, BPI could go north as well.

The good thing is that two other indicators are saying that BPI might head the right way. MACD and RSI (both encircled in red below) indicates that BPI is going to be a good buy (hope it's good buy and not goodbye). It's RSI is just well within the range.

However, should BPI's support fail to hold, there is a long way to go down to it's all time uptrend support. In the chart below, BPI's next support is going to be at around P37-P39, a decrease of approximately 25% in it's current value.

BPI doesn't have much fundamentals to back up it's technical probabilities and to gain some serious buying sentiment. Hence, though the chart looks promising, caution is still highly advised.

Right now BPI is roaming around the P52-54 range and has somewhat found a resistance at around P62-P65. 20% gain really doesn't sound that bad and the good thing is that if BPI could bounce back from it's 1 year uptrend support, it might break the P65 resistance and continue to go up. Wishful thinking that is but there's really no harm in keeping an eye on this one.

JFC: The Bee is Buzzing

After reaching the P100 plateau by late October of 2010, JFC (Jollibee) has somewhat gone sour and went down. From November 1, 2010 until early February of 2011, JFC went down from P90 to as low as P70, about 23% decrease in value.

JFC isn't getting much attention lately but I think that JFC has great potential than it's price action dictates. The chart below shows that JFC is potentially starting an upward momentum. The price picked up since it reached P70 and in nearly a week, it is hovering around the P75 mark. MACD and RSI are also positive. JFC's MACD signifies that an uptrend is somewhere ahead and it's RSI shows that it is strengthening both marking that it will go up sooner or later.

The graph below shows that JFC is approaching the 38.2% mark of Fibonacci. Theoretically, prices changes direction when it hits the 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8% marks of Fibonacci. 23.8% and 76.4% are areas worth looking at but not as strong as those 3.

JFC's behavior follows Fibonacci religiously. It went down when it hit the 61.8% mark in 2006 before bouncing back up when it hit the 76.4% mark later in 2006. It went down again after hitting the 50% mark in 2007 before bouncing back up after hitting the 76.4% once again in mid-2008. 38.2% could be a potential support if JFc would continue to follow Fibonacci.

JFC found a long term support at P30 but after surging past it's resistance at around P55, it might turn such resistance into support.

If worse comes to worse and JFC won't bounce back at 38.2%, it could go further down to P55 which is it's next support (shown on the chart below).

Fundamentally, JFC hasn't been a talk of the town lately. However, as soon as their Ti Amo coffee shops will start to materialize, expect JFC to take some serious momentum going up. The acquisition of Mang Inasal spurred the bee up in 2010, Ti Amo might do the same as well.

JFC still lacks market sentiment as of the moment but as soon as the fundamentals will start to come in, it will further strengthen it's technicals and there's no reason for it not to go up.

JFC went up from a little less than P10 in 2001 to as high as P100 in near end of 2010, some 900% growth in nearly a decade. From mid-2008, it went up from about P32 to a high of P100, more than 200% growth in just a year and a half.

It think that JFC still has a lot of room to grow given it's current price. P110-P120 range is doable before 2011 ends as long as fundamentals and market sentiment could back it up.

2011: Go high with JGS

If you're shopping for stocks to go long for 2011, JG Summit (JGS) is definitely one of the best picks. Just in case you don't know, JG Summit is the umbrella corporation of Cebu Pacific, Universal Robina Corporation, Robinsons Land Corporation, Digitel Philippines, United Industrial Corporation, Robinsons Bank, and JG Summit Petrochemical Corp run and owned by the Gokongwei family. JGS is one of the leaders in agro-industrial and commodity food products, telecommunications, property development and hotel management, air transportation, petrochemicals, information capital and financial services, and other supplementary businesses.

Probably you've heard me fantasize about JGS for a number of times already but who won't for a company that gave a growth of roughly 2000% in less than 2 years? In fact, it went up for as high as 2500% by near end of 2010 before starting to go down slow. If you had placed P100,000 in JGS back in March of 2009, you'd be having P200 million by now!

Anyway, speaking of JGS's potential, the chart below shows that [1] JGS is resting on it's uptrend support (which is very well inclined by the way), [2] it is bound for wave 5 according to Elliott Wave Theory, and [3] MACD (encircled below) signifies buying spree is just around the corner.

Take away the complexities of the analysis and summing it up, JGS is bound for another uphill climb and based on it's performance over the past 2 years, we're talking about some serious growth. Another 2000% gain might sound too ambitious but 500-1000% or maybe lesser won't hurt either. If that won't excite you, I don't know what will.

The chart below is JGS's chart from November of 2010 until February of 2011. The first line (longer line) shows that JGS was resting on it's downtrend support from November of 2010 until around mid-January of 2011. The second line (shorter line) shows that JGS didn't return to it's support and started to go back up. JGS is starting to gain momentum and it won't be long until it will start to rise again.

According to experts and professionals, PHISIX will get back up soon and by that time, expect JGS to continue it's uptrend too.

JGS is at P19.60 right now, quite a bargain if you ask me. We still haven't heard anything from JGS yet but as soon as fundamentals could back the technicals up, it will further solidify JGS's rise.

Going Long for 2011? Consider these Stocks

There are some things that got me excited recently. Some companies are showing great potential and are giving excellent points of entry before another rally comes.

A number of the companies in my watchlist are showing signs of life as soon as PHISIX recovers. I've mixed up very raw data (weekly MACD) to the historical charts of several companies and picked a few that shows really great potential (with few biases because most of these are personal favorites). Here are some of the potentially big (I mean really big) winners for 2011.

SMPH (SM Prime Holdings): The chart below shows that SMPH is bound for it's fifth wave in reference to Elliott Wave Theory. The fifth wave is an uptrend and ideally it will go for about a year referring to the first two uptrend waves.

SMPH's MACD for the week was good improving from -0.176 to -0.081 from February 2 until February 7.

For those who are looking to go long with SMPH, there is a drawback in it's graph. Should SMPH fail to bounce from it's support at around 10.2-10.5, it might go all the way down to it's long term support pegged at 6.50. Quite a deep fall from where it is right now (10.98).

SMC (San Miguel Corporation): A personal favorite. SMC was resting on a not so steep uptrend support until it broke loose near end of 2010. The chart shows that SMC jumped from around 80 late October 2010 to more than 180 by January 3, 2011 or about 140% growth in a little more than a month.

Right now, it seems that SMC met a strong resistance at 180. However, it remained strong despite the weakening of PHISIX which signifies that a very strong rally is just awaiting on the corner. Personally, I think that what's keeping SMC from getting past 180 is PHISIX. Once PHISIX starts to go up, expect SMC to go as well.

Many people are hesitant on taking SMC because of it's price but for me SMC still has a long way to go. SMC has already announced for a 2PO at around 250, announced it's diversifying plans, and has an income more than many blue chip companies. 180 is actually cheap for SMC. I could say that we could never go wrong with SMC.

SMB (San Miguel Brewery): SMB's chart looks very promising. An ascending triangle from near end of November 2010 until February for 2011 before finally getting past 30. Right now, it seems that history might repeat itself. SMB have found another resistance at 33 but another ascending triangle is forming. 35 and 36 is definitely within reach and is a good one for swing traders.

Just like SMC, SMB skyrocketed late 2010 before resting around the 25-30 plateau. Should another SMC rally come, expect SMB to follow. The good catch? SMB is way cheaper than SMC.

MEG (Megawide Corporation): Just like SMPH, MEG is another wave 5 bound entity based on it's 2-year chart. MEG was way below a peso back in the first quarter of 2009 and now is roaming around the 2-3 peso range (banks, cooperatives, bonds, and mutual funds can't give you around 200% growth in less than 2 years).

If MEG will continue to follow Elliott Wave Theory, it could reach P4 before 2011 ends or maybe even around P4.50.

For the past week, MEG's MACD is getting better bouncing from -0.0812 in February 2 to -0.0716 in February 7. MEG's price action doesn't show a lot of optimism lately but as far as technicals are concerned, MEG is going to be a really good one as soon as PHISIX recovers.

Lastly, MEG has announced to sell 292 million more shares at about P7.84 per share. If MEG will hold on to it's fundamentals, we are seeing some 200-300% growth this year.

JGS (JG Summit): Speaking of growth, where else could you find a gain of nearly 2000% in just two years? JGS grew from barely a peso back in January of 2009 to roughly P20 in January of 2011. In fact, it went as high as P25 around October of 2010. Now that's some serious growth.

Right now, JGS is getting near it's uptrend support at around 18 or 17.50 the least. However, it would be wise to take PHISIX into consideration before riding the JGS wave.

JGS's MACD went up the past 4 trading days which signifies that it is strengthening once again. Price action might say otherwise but technicals never lie. Sooner or later JGS will rise again.

This is one serious stock to take into consideration for 2011 (along with SMC).

CEB (Cebu Pacific): Price action doesn't really look good for CEB but the chart says otherwise. CEB is forming an identical triangle which says that it could go either way. However, MACD is getting better and in fact, has signified a buy signal.

Since CEB's value are down, I think that it is going to be at bargain once PHISIX gets back up. Lance Gokongwei already announced that CEB will be adding more planes and CEB will be having more affordable flights in 2011. Good news for employment and passengers.

Though it really doesn't look that good right now (price action), CEB is something worth looking. Never take CEB for granted especially if JGS will rise back up.

The downside for CEB is that it doesn't come in cheap. More fundamentals are needed.

PHISIX heavily influences the direction of the prices as much as the price action directs where PHISIX would go. Be patient and at the same time be cautious. PHISIX will get bullish (go back up) sooner or later but the London based Barclays Capital projected that the Philippines inflation rate might reach 4.5% by mid year of 2011 which might make PHISIX continue to go down. BDO's forecast of PHISIX to go down to as low as 3600 might really come true.

PSE: Buying Opportunity or a Trap?

Dow Jones finished green, RP's 7.2% GDP's effect finally realized, and it's Chinese New Year. PHISIX have found more reasons to finally get up and it did. PHISIX went up by 60.58 points (1.58%) to finish at 3891.07 for the day. Sounds and looks really good.

However, the graph below shows that PHISIX is resting on some support. Apparently, it will take at least a buy or two to send PHISIX back up to it's resistance (hopefully it won't break it's support) so a buying spree is highly probable in the next day or until the weekend.

Three possible scenarios:

1.) PHISIX will continue to go green and break it's mini resistance in days to come. This is what everybody wants.

2.) PHISIX will continue the trend.

3.) Whipsaw. PHISIX will go down setting up a bull trap for a number of buyers.

Summing it all up, I still don't see any good reason to invest at this point but it might be a good set up for a swing trade. Selling might persist in a week or more before the big rebound so as always, caveat.

MEG and SMPH wave 5 uptrend bound?

It's weekend and I've got a lot of time to review the companies on my watch list as well as look for some news to form some solid grounds on coming up with my trading and investing decisions. Looking at long term charts, MEG and SMPH are showing good room of potential to go long.

Elliot's Wave Theory (EWT) states that a stock normally goes 5 waves before changing it's course. 1, 3, and 5 going the same way while waves 2 and 4 going the opposite way.

EWT shows that SMPH have gone through waves one to four for the past year and a half going up from roughly P6 in near end of 2008 to more than P12 to near end of 2010 before slipping down to just a little over P10 as of this writing.

Supports at P10.7 and P10.5 were already hit and there is a good chance that this stock will slip further down. Confirmation is strongly recommended for this stock before entry. Personally, I think that this could go down further to P10 or maybe even more.

MEG presents a very interesting case as it could go either way. Starting with the downtrend, MEG could possibly be on it's 5th wave which is going down and should a reversal will happen, there's no other way to go but up. If we'll start wave one with the uptrend, MEG's wave 5 will be going up for a year (based from the interval of the first four waves). Either way, be it starting EWT from the downtrend or from an uptrend, it will still go up sooner or later.

MEG started from barely nothing near the start of 2009 and went all the way up to as high as near P3 in 2010 before settling down to near P2 as of this writing. Just like everything else, entry should be done best after a confirmation of the trend.

For the fractional growth of these two stocks since wave 1, MEG (computing from the uptrend) grew nearly 300% in roughly two years and a little over 200% to date while SMPH was close to 100% gain in two years and around 67% as of this writing. Not really that bad if you ask me (way better than putting money in the bank actually).

And lastly, it might be wise to make an entry when PHISIX is back on an uptrend again. Take note that we're entering for a long hold, not day or swing trade the stock.

The Potential of PX and JGS

Philex Mining (PX) and JG Summit Holdings (JGS) have caught my attention as their graphs looked promising as of the moment. Both PX and JGS are at their current trend supports and with the talks of the market getting bullish yet again this coming February or March, it seems that both will be strengthening their supports and continue the trend.

Here are the graphs of PX and JGS. As of this writing PX is at 15.2 and JGS is at 19 flat.

Philex Mining (PX)

JG Summit Holdings (JGS)

PX has grown from nearly P2 in 2004 to roughly P10 to start 2011, a growth of about 400%. JGS on the other hand rose from barely a peso in 2008 to about P20 to start 2011, a whooping 2000% growth in just roughly 2 years. Should the trend continue, both PX and JGS offers some really good potential.

For long term investors and those who are planning to invest in the stock market, these two are worth some look.

*Please bear with the graphs. I will get better in time. =)