Saturday, February 19, 2011

SMC: Fundamentally Sound in 2011

San Miguel Corporation (listed SMC) is one of the companies poised to have a breakout in 2011. SMC broke loose from around P80 in November of 2010 and reached highs at around P185 entering January 2011. The sudden rise was triggered by the reports that SMC is going to invest $40 million in Indophil Resources NL, owner of 37.5% stake in the untapped gold and copper deposit in Asia and part of the $52 billion Tampakan copper-gold project in South Cotabato and the recent acquisition of petroleum heavyweight Petron.

However, SMC has somewhat found a resistance at around P180 as shown in the chart below. For a company that has a lot of fundamentals, what could possibly be holding SMC back from breaking out? SMC's sharp rise might have prompted several firms and individuals to take their profits. The sell out has brought PHISIX down and several investors have taken their money to more stable economies such as the United States and Europe, invested them in stronger currencies or indices.

As far as SMC is concerned, their diversifying plans have further boosted the value of their stocks. Other than the Tampakan project, SMC may also challenge the Pangilinan-led Metro Pacific Investment Corp.'s offer to buy the government's stake in Metro Rail Transit (MRT 3) confirmed by SMC president Ramon S. Ang. SMC is also in talks with Citra Lamtoro Gong Persada and Star Tollway Corp. for a possible organization and establishment of a corporation that will consolidate and undertake toll-road operations and participate in infrastructure projects initiated by the government through it's PPP (public private partnerships) program.

In terms of revenues, SMC eyes a revenue of P1 trillion by 2016. The company made P230 billion in 2010 and projects P530 billion in revenues in 2011. Out of the projected P530 billion revenue, only P214 billion are said to come from the company's traditional food and beverage businesses while the remaining sum from the new businesses, spearheaded by Petron.

Mr. Ang also announced that SMC will have its second public offering once the price of its shares goes up to P250. Ang also said that SMC's current price which is around the P175-P185 range doesn't reflect the company's real assets and worth.

As soon as the market would pick up some buying momentum and break its resistance at P180, expect SMC to go high, fast, and steep. Personally, I think that SMC could go higher than P250 even as high as P300 before 2011 ends provided that its diversification plans would come into fruition.

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