Tuesday, August 23, 2011

EDC: Soon to Rise Again?

EDC's chart suggest that it may once again regain some bullish momentum. In the first chart (below), EDC's price is currently resting at 23.6% Fibonacci in more than a 2 year span. Though 23.6% Fib isn't considered as a major support compared to 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8%, in some cases, price action bounce at 23.6% Fib. Should this support hold, EDC may head back to its previous high at a little over than P7.


The second chart below shows that EDC's 2-year 23.6% Fib is currently at its 1-year 50% Fib which is considered as a major support (encircled in yellow). With two Fibonacci ratios hitting the same price, this further solidifies EDC's chances of resuming an uptrend.


But some caution should be exercised. EDC's RSI and MACD suggests that it is a little far from being bullish. EDC's RSI is oversold which could mean two different things: [1] Traders/investors have lost interest/confidence in this stock thus selling and getting rid of it (probably for the mean time), or, in the positive note, [2] Should EDC gain momentum, there is a very high upside because of the availability of shares.

Fundamentally, EDC incurred losses amounting to P1.3B upon shutting down its Northern Negros Geothermal Power (NNGP) but made it up by bagging tax breaks from two geothermal power projects worth P3.91B.

Indicators suggest that EDC is bearish as of the moment but it may rebound quickly and be bullish in an instant. Confirmation in the price action is needed to minimize the risk. Brokers currently having heavy loads of EDC from August 17 to August 22 are BDO Securities, Macquarie Securities, Abacus Securities, and Angping and Associates (to name a few).

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