Manila Mining (MA) to challenge 10 month resistance

I've been a fan of Manila Mining (MA) for the past week. MA just got out from its triangle and went up from 0.051 to as high as 0.063 (23.52%) in just a week. However, the chart below tells that MA is right at its 10-month resistance.

Should MA maintain its momentum and break such resistance, 0.1 would just be around the corner. With the momentum that the mining and oil sector has gained over the past months, there is a good possibility that MA will get past such resistance and continue to go north. On the downside, MA's RSI shows that it is already over the oversold level.

Fundamentally, the market sentiment towards the mining and oil sector remains very high and the price of gold continues to increase thus making MA still one of the better picks in the market today.

Personal Disclosure: Sold MA for 17.19% gain after 5 days and bought PWR for another short term play. Should MA bounce back after the correction and break such resistance, I'll get back into the MA wagon.

Fibonacci Analysis: The Long Overdue Bull Run

Apparently, the much awaited uptrend is already long overdue. Bad news comes one after another which significantly affects PHISIX. Nevertheless, the index has shown signs of life as it remained in the consolidation stage despite the negative turn of events. Quite an achievement so to speak.

I ran a Fibonacci analysis on some stocks (including PHISIX) and found some interesting set ups. The chart below shows that PHISIX is just hovering above 23.6% of Fibonacci which is at 3800. This is applicable to those who are investing in mutual funds and UITFs since these financial entities are strongly affected by the stock market. As soon as PHISIX hits 3800 and bounces back up, it's a good entry point.

The charts below show some good stocks positions for several companies.

PCOR: Many are scared of PCOR because of the dip that it took for the last two months. The chart below shows that PCOR went up as it hit the 50% mark. 50% in Fib is quite strong (in my opinion). It is a little premature to take PCOR but this is definitely worth the look.

JGS: JGS hit the 23.6% mark at 21.5 and went back up. Confirmation is needed as usual to minimize the risk. The chart also shows that 21.5 is a resistance that might turn into a support if JGS would bounce back up. Other than Fibonacci, JGS is also resting on its uptrend support.

JFC: JFC is nearing to hit the 23.6% resistance at 85. If JFC will break it, it will indicate some strong bullish momentum. On a short term perspective, JFC is consolidating. It's undecided as to where to go so again, waiting for a confirmation would be wise before coming up with a decision.

EDC: EDC hit 23.6% at P6. Considering that this has some bullish momentum, this would most likely bounce back up. EDC got some good reviews for the year so I think that at P6, it is a good buy.

AC: Just like JFC, AC is up to challenge the 23.6% resistance at 360. AC was hovering around the 355-360 mark recently and should it get past 360, it will signal some strong buying.

Fibonacci Retracements only suggest where the price would possibly go next but doesn't exactly tell where it would head. It still needs confirmation of price action, other indicators, and fundamentals to further boost its reliability. Nevertheless, I remain optimistic on these stocks for 2011 and the bulls are just waiting at the corner.

The Rainbow After The Rain

After some selling pressure for more than a month, the Philippine Stock Exchange Index (PHISIX or PSEi) is now into the consolidation stage giving signs of a possible uptrend real soon. Some stocks have already broke loose from their short term (in the 1 month downtrend) resistance, some going into consolidation as well while some turned such resistance into supports. However, there are some that continued to go down.

Since the valuations went down for the past weeks, this is a very good time to buy as the much anticipated uptrend is just around the corner. PHISIX is flirting with it's 3900 resistance and as soon as it gains some serious bullish momentum and break such resistance, expect a good number of stocks and PHISIX as well to soar high.

The list entails a lot of Fibonacci retracements and Elliott Wave Theory wave 5 potentials. Elliott Wave Theory's wave 5 is an uptrend or in other words, the value of a particular stock continuing to go up. Fibonacci on the other hand notes some precalculated support/resistance levels that are found to hold true (not all the time but most of the time). If a price hits a Fibonacci support/resistance, it is most likely to reverse.

I have kept a handful of companies in my watch list and picked a few with some really good potential to invest in for at least this year. Most of the MACDs and RSI of such companies are positive indicating some good points of entry. Here's my list:

AC - For the past weeks, AC dropped from around 403 to just a little over 320. For the month of March, AC gained buying pressure as it rose to almost 355. In a two-year reference, AC is hovering above it's two year support and might possibly head into wave 5 of Elliott Wave Theory. My favorite part is seeing it bounce at 38.2% of Fibonacci since January of 2009.

AP - From mid-October of 2008 until this day, AP is on a very strong uptrend gradually yet consistently rising from barely a peso to as high as 35. However, a certain support (from around September of 2009) says that AP's support has turned into a resistance which it is currently challenging right now. Fibonacci suggests that AP might have bounced at 23.6% already (which is a minor support in Fibonacci). As of now, there is no clear indication as to where AP would head next but as soon as it breaks through its resistance at around 32, it's going to be a good buy.

DMC - Technicals are really looking so good for DMC. First, it is resting on a very solid uptrend support and just bounced recently at around 33-34. Second, in a two year span, DMC's position for an Elliott Wave Theory wave 5 is looking really good. For the entry, DMC just broke it's resistance at around 37. It is going to be on its way to challenge its previous high at 40. I'm very optimistic about this one.

JGS - JGS broke its uptrend support and went sideways for the past 2 1/2 months. However, JGS is forming an ascending triangle and should the resistance at around 19.8 will be broken, JGS could go high fast. In a 1 1/2 years span, JGS could enter Elliott Wave Theory wave 5. It needs some confirmation though as MACD is showing selling might just be ahead. JGS has already hit its 38.2% Fibonacci support in a two year reference.

MBT - Another Elliott Wave Theory wave 5 candidate. However, MBT's support for the last 2 years has become its resistance. If it could break its resistance at 72, it will be on its way up, wave 5 might come after all. It is also resting on its 38.2% Fibonacci support. A bounce is more likely.

MEG - From April 2009, MEG is an eye candy for Fibonacci players. MEG is well resting on its 38.2% support, consolidated, and resumed an uptrend. MEG also just bounced from its 2 year uptrend support, quite a solid support that is.

RCB - In nearly two years, RCB just bounced from its 23.6% Fibonacci support. However, on the same span of time, it has just gone below its uptrend support and challenges to break through it. Should RCB break such resistance and turn it back into a support, it will be on its way up.

SCC - Not really much to say about this one. It's uptrend support is very strong. One of my best picks for the year.

SMC - After a strong uptrend, SMC is consolidating as of the moment. Considering all the fundamentals that this company has, SMC remains a strong one for 2011. Confirmation is needed for entry. From the foot of its uptrend late in 2010, SMC is on the 23.6% support of Fibonacci at roughly P160.

SMPH - As of this writing, SMPH just broke out from its downtrend from December of 2010. A support at 10 is somewhat found but as far as Fibonacci is concerned, it might fall down as it hits the 23.6% ceiling. However, in a two year span, SMPH might head into Elliott Wave Theory wave 5. Quite worth looking at.

However, these are all just based on my analysis of the charts and doesn't include fundamentals yet. Always keep in mind that the most important thing in all of these is the price action. Technicals are just signs of the possible behavior and to project the possibility of the direction of the price. If things won't go as expected, bail out. Your decisions will never be right all the time. And lastly, cut hoping (that the price will go up anytime soon). Hoping can lead to false hopes.

BEL: Double Bottom?

The chart below shows that BEL (Belle Corporation) is in a potential double bottom. BEL was one of the many companies that surged late in 2010 as it went up from a little below P2.50 last November of 2010 to as high as P6.30 in mid January of 2011 before starting to sink to less than P5 in February.

However as shown in the chart, BEL gained some momentum at around P4.70ish, went back up to reach near P5.20 before going back down to around P4.70. Since then, BEL gradually picked up some uptrend momentum.

What's interesting in the chart is that the P4.70 level was an uptrend resistance before the double bottom (hopefully) formed. Around January 6, 2011, BEL hit the P4.70 level before bouncing back up for one more run before losing some strength.

Should the double bottom hold, BEL could continue its uptrend run. The good catch? BEL is just hovering around the P5 mark, quite cheap.

I'm optimistic about BEL (I'm always optimistic anyway) but a confirmation would be wise. The double bottom might not hold true. Better be safe than sorry.

SCC: Going Down?

For a little more than a year, SCC's uptrend support has been so strong. SCC's stock rose from around P40 in January of 2010 to as high as P210 (even higher) in January of 2011. The support was challenged several times yet held firm.

However the chart below signifies that SCC's uptrend support might finally give in. First, the chart shows a rising wedge formation which theoretically signals that a downtrend is coming soon. Second, SCC has breached its seemingly strong uptrend support (encircled in blue).

Though SCC is a strong one, the chart shows the market sentiment. It's price action is starting to consolidate after a gradual yet consistent rise. This could be testing a new support level or heading for a reversal (hopefully, it's the former).

On a personal note, I think that SCC is going to be one of the strong stocks as soon as PHISIX is done with consolidation and resumes an uptrend. The Mining and Oil index is projected to do very good in 2011 and SCC is the leading company in the said index.

SCC's charts shows two things: [1] That it is a very strong stock considering its uptrend support (which was breached possibly because of consolidation of the market), and [2] That it might finally break the support and go for a nosedive. How deep? Nobody knows. SCC could go as low as P160, P140, or P110 based on Fibonacci's 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8%.

A bold prediction on SCC: As soon as this gets through the previous uptrend support which is at around the P210-P215 range, it will gain momentum and rise fast. Right now, I think that it would just be wise to buy on rallies and sell on dips (or sell on resistance).

JFC: The Bee is Buzzing

After reaching the P100 plateau by late October of 2010, JFC (Jollibee) has somewhat gone sour and went down. From November 1, 2010 until early February of 2011, JFC went down from P90 to as low as P70, about 23% decrease in value.

JFC isn't getting much attention lately but I think that JFC has great potential than it's price action dictates. The chart below shows that JFC is potentially starting an upward momentum. The price picked up since it reached P70 and in nearly a week, it is hovering around the P75 mark. MACD and RSI are also positive. JFC's MACD signifies that an uptrend is somewhere ahead and it's RSI shows that it is strengthening both marking that it will go up sooner or later.

The graph below shows that JFC is approaching the 38.2% mark of Fibonacci. Theoretically, prices changes direction when it hits the 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8% marks of Fibonacci. 23.8% and 76.4% are areas worth looking at but not as strong as those 3.

JFC's behavior follows Fibonacci religiously. It went down when it hit the 61.8% mark in 2006 before bouncing back up when it hit the 76.4% mark later in 2006. It went down again after hitting the 50% mark in 2007 before bouncing back up after hitting the 76.4% once again in mid-2008. 38.2% could be a potential support if JFc would continue to follow Fibonacci.

JFC found a long term support at P30 but after surging past it's resistance at around P55, it might turn such resistance into support.

If worse comes to worse and JFC won't bounce back at 38.2%, it could go further down to P55 which is it's next support (shown on the chart below).

Fundamentally, JFC hasn't been a talk of the town lately. However, as soon as their Ti Amo coffee shops will start to materialize, expect JFC to take some serious momentum going up. The acquisition of Mang Inasal spurred the bee up in 2010, Ti Amo might do the same as well.

JFC still lacks market sentiment as of the moment but as soon as the fundamentals will start to come in, it will further strengthen it's technicals and there's no reason for it not to go up.

JFC went up from a little less than P10 in 2001 to as high as P100 in near end of 2010, some 900% growth in nearly a decade. From mid-2008, it went up from about P32 to a high of P100, more than 200% growth in just a year and a half.

It think that JFC still has a lot of room to grow given it's current price. P110-P120 range is doable before 2011 ends as long as fundamentals and market sentiment could back it up.

2011: Go high with JGS

If you're shopping for stocks to go long for 2011, JG Summit (JGS) is definitely one of the best picks. Just in case you don't know, JG Summit is the umbrella corporation of Cebu Pacific, Universal Robina Corporation, Robinsons Land Corporation, Digitel Philippines, United Industrial Corporation, Robinsons Bank, and JG Summit Petrochemical Corp run and owned by the Gokongwei family. JGS is one of the leaders in agro-industrial and commodity food products, telecommunications, property development and hotel management, air transportation, petrochemicals, information capital and financial services, and other supplementary businesses.

Probably you've heard me fantasize about JGS for a number of times already but who won't for a company that gave a growth of roughly 2000% in less than 2 years? In fact, it went up for as high as 2500% by near end of 2010 before starting to go down slow. If you had placed P100,000 in JGS back in March of 2009, you'd be having P200 million by now!

Anyway, speaking of JGS's potential, the chart below shows that [1] JGS is resting on it's uptrend support (which is very well inclined by the way), [2] it is bound for wave 5 according to Elliott Wave Theory, and [3] MACD (encircled below) signifies buying spree is just around the corner.

Take away the complexities of the analysis and summing it up, JGS is bound for another uphill climb and based on it's performance over the past 2 years, we're talking about some serious growth. Another 2000% gain might sound too ambitious but 500-1000% or maybe lesser won't hurt either. If that won't excite you, I don't know what will.

The chart below is JGS's chart from November of 2010 until February of 2011. The first line (longer line) shows that JGS was resting on it's downtrend support from November of 2010 until around mid-January of 2011. The second line (shorter line) shows that JGS didn't return to it's support and started to go back up. JGS is starting to gain momentum and it won't be long until it will start to rise again.

According to experts and professionals, PHISIX will get back up soon and by that time, expect JGS to continue it's uptrend too.

JGS is at P19.60 right now, quite a bargain if you ask me. We still haven't heard anything from JGS yet but as soon as fundamentals could back the technicals up, it will further solidify JGS's rise.

Going Long for 2011? Consider these Stocks

There are some things that got me excited recently. Some companies are showing great potential and are giving excellent points of entry before another rally comes.

A number of the companies in my watchlist are showing signs of life as soon as PHISIX recovers. I've mixed up very raw data (weekly MACD) to the historical charts of several companies and picked a few that shows really great potential (with few biases because most of these are personal favorites). Here are some of the potentially big (I mean really big) winners for 2011.

SMPH (SM Prime Holdings): The chart below shows that SMPH is bound for it's fifth wave in reference to Elliott Wave Theory. The fifth wave is an uptrend and ideally it will go for about a year referring to the first two uptrend waves.

SMPH's MACD for the week was good improving from -0.176 to -0.081 from February 2 until February 7.

For those who are looking to go long with SMPH, there is a drawback in it's graph. Should SMPH fail to bounce from it's support at around 10.2-10.5, it might go all the way down to it's long term support pegged at 6.50. Quite a deep fall from where it is right now (10.98).

SMC (San Miguel Corporation): A personal favorite. SMC was resting on a not so steep uptrend support until it broke loose near end of 2010. The chart shows that SMC jumped from around 80 late October 2010 to more than 180 by January 3, 2011 or about 140% growth in a little more than a month.

Right now, it seems that SMC met a strong resistance at 180. However, it remained strong despite the weakening of PHISIX which signifies that a very strong rally is just awaiting on the corner. Personally, I think that what's keeping SMC from getting past 180 is PHISIX. Once PHISIX starts to go up, expect SMC to go as well.

Many people are hesitant on taking SMC because of it's price but for me SMC still has a long way to go. SMC has already announced for a 2PO at around 250, announced it's diversifying plans, and has an income more than many blue chip companies. 180 is actually cheap for SMC. I could say that we could never go wrong with SMC.

SMB (San Miguel Brewery): SMB's chart looks very promising. An ascending triangle from near end of November 2010 until February for 2011 before finally getting past 30. Right now, it seems that history might repeat itself. SMB have found another resistance at 33 but another ascending triangle is forming. 35 and 36 is definitely within reach and is a good one for swing traders.

Just like SMC, SMB skyrocketed late 2010 before resting around the 25-30 plateau. Should another SMC rally come, expect SMB to follow. The good catch? SMB is way cheaper than SMC.

MEG (Megawide Corporation): Just like SMPH, MEG is another wave 5 bound entity based on it's 2-year chart. MEG was way below a peso back in the first quarter of 2009 and now is roaming around the 2-3 peso range (banks, cooperatives, bonds, and mutual funds can't give you around 200% growth in less than 2 years).

If MEG will continue to follow Elliott Wave Theory, it could reach P4 before 2011 ends or maybe even around P4.50.

For the past week, MEG's MACD is getting better bouncing from -0.0812 in February 2 to -0.0716 in February 7. MEG's price action doesn't show a lot of optimism lately but as far as technicals are concerned, MEG is going to be a really good one as soon as PHISIX recovers.

Lastly, MEG has announced to sell 292 million more shares at about P7.84 per share. If MEG will hold on to it's fundamentals, we are seeing some 200-300% growth this year.

JGS (JG Summit): Speaking of growth, where else could you find a gain of nearly 2000% in just two years? JGS grew from barely a peso back in January of 2009 to roughly P20 in January of 2011. In fact, it went as high as P25 around October of 2010. Now that's some serious growth.

Right now, JGS is getting near it's uptrend support at around 18 or 17.50 the least. However, it would be wise to take PHISIX into consideration before riding the JGS wave.

JGS's MACD went up the past 4 trading days which signifies that it is strengthening once again. Price action might say otherwise but technicals never lie. Sooner or later JGS will rise again.

This is one serious stock to take into consideration for 2011 (along with SMC).

CEB (Cebu Pacific): Price action doesn't really look good for CEB but the chart says otherwise. CEB is forming an identical triangle which says that it could go either way. However, MACD is getting better and in fact, has signified a buy signal.

Since CEB's value are down, I think that it is going to be at bargain once PHISIX gets back up. Lance Gokongwei already announced that CEB will be adding more planes and CEB will be having more affordable flights in 2011. Good news for employment and passengers.

Though it really doesn't look that good right now (price action), CEB is something worth looking. Never take CEB for granted especially if JGS will rise back up.

The downside for CEB is that it doesn't come in cheap. More fundamentals are needed.

PHISIX heavily influences the direction of the prices as much as the price action directs where PHISIX would go. Be patient and at the same time be cautious. PHISIX will get bullish (go back up) sooner or later but the London based Barclays Capital projected that the Philippines inflation rate might reach 4.5% by mid year of 2011 which might make PHISIX continue to go down. BDO's forecast of PHISIX to go down to as low as 3600 might really come true.