Stock Pick: MPI

For roughly a year, MPI has been moving below its trend resistance until it broke past it last December 2011 (mid-December) as shown in the chart below.

Interestingly, despite the strong momentum that the market has gained since January, MPI continued to consolidate.

Below is MPI's chart since breaking past the trend resistance.

It can be seen that MPI is still on a downtrend. However, there is a possibility of a reversal. Here are the reasons why.

SCTEX and NLEX - Metro Pacific Tollways Corp. (MPTC) allocates P2.3B for NLEX and SCTEX. According to MPTC president Ramoncito Fernandez, a bulk of the P2.3B (P2B to be exact) will be allocated for the Segment 9 road project which is a part of NLEX. The other project is the Segment 10 road project. Segment 9 will connect McArthur Highway in Valenzuela to NLEX while Segment 10 will connect McArthur Highway to C3 Road. For the record, MPTC controls the concession of the 84-kilometer NLEX.

However, MPTC is still waiting the final word from Malacanang for SCTEX.

MPTC subsidiary Manila North Tollways Corp. (MNTC) will operate and manage SCTEX for the next 33 years.

Hospitals - MPIC is eyeing to have a nationwide network of 15 hospitals in the next five years and a total of at least 5,000 hospital beds which is in line with the company's P10-B goal by 2016. The group is currently the largest hospital operator in the country with 1,800 bed capacity.

MPIC just recently bought 842,454,380 common shares or 43.5% stake of Asian Hospital, Inc. Asian Hospital is the first major private hospital with tertiary care facilities in southern Luzon. It has a 217-bed capacity and stands on a 17,258 square meter campus.

MPIC is also in the talks with Capitol Medical Center (CMC) which has a 300 bed capacity. CMC is one of the leading and premier medical institutions in Quezon City with more than three decades of delivering quality health care assistance. 

The 5 other hospitals that MPIC controls are: Makati Medical Center, Our Lady of Lourdes Hospital in Sta. Mesa, Riverside Medical Center in Bacolod, Cardinal Santos Medical Center in San Juan, and Davao Doctors Hospital in Mindanao.

MPIC is also eyeing hospitals at Northern Luzon, Central Luzon, Southern Luzon, Western Visayas, Central Visayas, Northern Mindanao, and Western Mindanao.

Core Income - MPI earned P5.1B in 2011 exceeding their P5B forecast. MPTC pushed MPI's profit up because of the strong demand. MPTC earned P1.48B in 2011. Earnings beat estimates because of the low operating expenses and the high earnings contribution from its 46% owned Tollway Management Corporation. MPI earned more than the forecast despite the unmet expectations from Maynilad and Meralco.

For 2012, MPI sets P23.2B budget. P11.9B will be used for Meralco, P8.4B for Maynilad, P1.8B for the hospital group, and P1.1B for the tollways.

MPI has a face value of P4.67.

However, MPI has a little cause of concern (at least short term) because of the gap up. Gap ups are normally being filled thus the ideal entry point is when the gap is being filled.

But since MPI has posted very strong fundamentals, it may continue its trek up. Notice that the closing price is also at the short trend resistance. If it breaks past its resistance, it is most likely to surge. If not, the gap may be filled.

Long term, this is a gem.

PSEI: Correction Bound?

The Philippine Stock Market Index has been stellar since 2012 stepped in. The index has gone up from a little over 4300 after 2011 to as high as 4950 (as of this writing) or roughly 14% in less than 2 months. We are officially in a bull market. A bull market is a market condition wherein almost everybody is a genius, even the beginners. Almost all the stocks you buy go up if given some time resulting to hefty gains.

However, looking at it short term, the index may go lower for a few days (which is quite rare for 2012).

The chart above shows that the index, which is currently at 4950, is near its possible psychological resistance at 5000. It is also inside an uptrend channel which pegs its resistance at 5000.

However, PSE's RSI is still far from overbought which may, just may, push it higher past 5000.

Whether PSE corrects at 5000 or will break past it, it doesn't matter. Oil, mining, the financial sector, real estate, and everybody's new favorite, the basuras are doing more than just fine, as well as other sectors. This bull run has a long way to go because this has been the long overdue run last year (Japan tsunami, chaos in the middle east, European debt crisis, who cares about Europe especially Greece these days by the way? haha!) and companies in the Philippines has been so fundamentally excellent. Prices will continue to go up so let's enjoy the feeling of being a genius while it lasts. haha!

You can disregard the index but if you want a more better return, consider trading with the index's momentum.

Rainbow After the Rain

The crisis that has hit Europe, Greece in particular, so far has caused both reasonable and exaggerated fear. Reasonable in a sense that the markets are bound to go down in the next few weeks or even months not until the said crisis is resolved and exaggerated in a sense that some traders/investors are making it look worse than it seem. Either way, major markets are going down and not even the good economic state of the United States can spare it.

Patience is indeed a virtue and on an investors' point of view, the rewards that may follow the recession may not just be great but spectacular. Let's see how did some blue chip companies do after the 2008 financial crisis.

DMC - For as low as P2 per share in December 2008, DMC went up to as high as P48 in May 2011 or some 2400% increase in 2.5 years. DMC was around its previous high of P14 before it went down to lower the P2 levels.

JGS - JGS was around P2 per share in December 2008 and went up to as high as P28 in May 2011 or 1400% increase in 2.5 years. JGS was at a previous high of around P15 before it went down to P2.

DMC and JGS are just some of the stocks that have worked wonders when the market recovered. What does this say? Blue chips are bound to get cheap with the upcoming recession (if Europe can't solve the Greece puzzle). Some stocks that are have great potential are EDC, MEG, mining sector stocks such as PX, NI, ORE, AGP, DIZ, LC, and MA, the financial sector stocks, and probably SMC, and CEB.

However, while waiting for the storm to calm down, penny stocks are getting some attention. 2011 was filled with mixed emotions in the market but these penny stocks has just been plain spectacular

BHI - From around 0.065 in January 2011 to as high as 0.51 mid September, BHI has already went up to as high as 685% in just 9 months before it went down after the news broke out that it is going to be suspended for 3 months. At around 0.2, BHI is somewhat cheap and it will go back up in just a matter of time.

MA - From 0.022 in January to as high as 0.077 at late August, MA has gone up to as high as 250% in just a matter of 9 months. Thanks to the strong mining sector that has pushed this one up along with LC. MA/B has basically the same growth as MA.

LC - A leap from 0.4 to 1.8, LC has gone up by 350% in just a matter of roughly 9 months. A strong gold plus the Goldfields deal pushed LC up along with LC/B and pulled MA and MA/B along with it.

ZHI - Kinda late as it started its run just on July but it went up by more or less 500% in just a matter of weeks. After the retracement, ZHI has started to show some life once again by going up from 0.6 to nearly 1, roughly 66% in two or three weeks.

What are the key points here?

1.) With a very uncertain market, traders/investors are banking on "cheap" stocks such as penny stocks. Putting aside P/E ratios, debt-to-equity ratios, and other fundamental indicators, by cheap we mean a huge upside potential. Penny stocks can give a large number of shares which in return, may result to bigger earnings (or losses) per tick. Penny stocks come to life when the market is bad and while waiting for the market to recover and the blue chips to come back to life, rest on penny stocks. One stock that may follow suit is WPI.

2.) As soon as the market recovers, shift to blue chip companies. Blues move faster in a very good economy because they are the barometers of the economy. Though penny stocks may still continue to do good, blue chips move faster. Just refer to DMC and JGS's performance after 2008.

NI and ORE

The 2-day massive sell down has brought most stocks down. Corrections are healthy and are always a part of the market movement. The good thing, what goes down always comes back up.

Majority of the stocks are on their bargain prices and after days, and even weeks, of bullishness, most of these stocks have retraced and are soon bound to go back up.

ORE and NI have shown great potential to rise. On the first chart below, ORE is currently resting on its channel support at 5. How strong is the support? ORE's low for the day was 5 signifying that such support is strong.

Hyped to make it to 10, ORE is poised to give nearly 100% return. Fundamentally, the ASM is scheduled on September 15 and prices are expected to rise before the said date.

Below is the chart of NI. NI bounced at 50% Fibonacci at 3.67.

Fundamentally, NI is being prompted by the anticipation of a "big company" coming in. Because NI bought a part of ORE, both NI and ORE might go hand in hand together.

Both NI and ORE are poised to make it to 10 but the question is who makes it first. As far as the channel and Fibonacci are concerned, ORE is a sell at the 7 or even 8 levels while NI may breach 4 once again in a very short period of time.

Megaworld: Mega-rise bound?

Megaworld (MEG) has been a megastock midyear 2010 after it's meteoric rise from less than P1.2 to over P2.8 in just 6 months, talking about some 133% gain in just half a year span. Apparently, MEG has somewhat lost some steam in 2011, range trading between the P2-P2.4 levels before finally breaching P2 and head down to as low as P1.8.

Though MEG has exhibited some bearish characteristics, significant moohlah can still be earned from this stock and in fact, it may once again gain it's bullishness that it once had.

The chart below shows MEG's trading channel for the past 4 months.

What's significant about MEG's chart is its support. It's price bounced thrice (as of the moment) upon hitting its support indicating that support is strong and reliable enough. Should MEG exclusively follow such trend, an entry price of less than P1.8 is ideal, preferably 1.75 or lower. MEG's MACD indicator is also indicating some bullishness. MACD is a trend indicator signifying how strong (either bullish or bearish) a trend is.

Fundamentally, MEG has reported 70% increase in earnings to P15.75B in the first half of 2011 in comparison to the same period last year and it's net income increased by 131% to P5.16B including a P2B non-recurring gain from sale of AGI shares of stock. MEG's strong performance was backed by strong sales of residence projects such as Newport City, McKinley West, and McKinley Hill, as well as strong leasing income from it's BPO and retail portfolio.

With an entry price of P1.75 soon (hopefully) to be hit by September, MEG can rise to as high as 2.15 as far as the channel is concerned. We are looking at a conservative near 25% gain. Not really bad to swing trade.

Nihao Mineral Resources International (NI): Time To Shine Once Again?

Nihao Mineral Resources International (NI) is one of the most loved and hated stocks last year. After hitting more than P8 late in 2009, NI has gone downhill leaving many traders trapped and forced many others to cut their losses.

However, NI is showing some signs of life and opportunities to win some love back. The chart below is NI's 6-year uptrend support wherein it suggests that its price is currently hovering above such support. There is also a potential inverted head and shoulder formation coming and should such pattern come into a reality, NI is bound for some significant rebound. A target price of P4 is ideal for the inverted head and shoulder.

This second chart shows NI's price action for the past 3 months. NI has found a resistance at P2.50 and is out to challenge it once again.

This last chart shows that NI has been gaining momentum as it has risen for the past 3 days and its RSI (encircled in green) is showing that there is some buying pressure on NI.

NI's momentum is not yet significant but is worth looking at. Personally, I think that it is a good buying opportunity for NI.

Personal Disclosure: Bought some NI @ P2.27

PX Poised To Give Its High Another Run

The Manny Pangilinan led Philex Mining (PX) may hit another high soon. The charts below suggest that PX is setting itself up for another bullish run and possibly break its previous high set at the 27 levels.

The first chart below suggests that PX is just a few notches below its 10-month resistance to date.

The second chart however suggests that it is once again going to challenge such resistance. It has just bounced from its June-July support and may have got some new life.

PX finished strong today closing at 25.65 from 25.50 and hovering around the 25.30-25.40 mark for the most part of the day before going up. Ideally, if the support and resistance levels will hold true, PX will rise from 25.65 to a little less than 28 or probably even breach that mark. Setting a target price at 28 (maybe just a conservative amount), PX could rise by 10%-11% in just a matter of days or maybe weeks, not really quite bad.

Aside from the support and resistance levels, PX's RSI suggests that it is far from overbought thus many buyers will flock this stock in the next few days prompting this one to get so bullish. On the second chart, it's MACD (encircled in green) is starting to reverse which signifies that it will once again head back up. With both RSI and MACD considered, there is a good chance that PX will break such resistance (27.80 to 28 levels). If such resistance is broken, PX is going to uncharted waters where history suggests is a territory where stocks phenomenally go high. Setting a target price of around P35 or a gain of more than 20% is still realistic.

PX is fundamentally rich as well. Philex's subsidiary Silangan Mindanao Mining Co. just bagged tax breaks in its P49B project in Surigao del Norte. The said project can generate 2,592 jobs upon its operation by 2017 that covers 2,880 hectares of land and estimated to contain 393 million metric tons of ore which will have an estimated mine life of 36 years.

Possible Superstars in the Properties Sector

The PSE Properties Sector has been moving sideways between the 1400 and 1600 levels for the past 10 months. Now that such sector is nearing 1600 once again, there is a good chance that such resistance will be broken. In order to do that, stocks in the properties sector must do well, just like how the mining and oil sector is doing in line with the continuous rise in the oil price.

Here are two technically rich stocks that might propel the properties sector to break the 1600 mark and possible build some momentum and rise significantly.

Ayala Land Inc. (ALI)

The chart below shows that ALI has just broken out its 10 month resistance. With its RSI suggesting that it is still far from being overbought and the fundamentals that the properties sector has got recently, it won't be surprising to see ALI go up.

If ALI's price action moves up, it may encounter resistances at 17, 17.50, and around 18.20. With its current price at 16.58, ALI presents some conservative yet possibly less risky gains.

Belle Corporation (BEL)

Whether BEL behaves extraordinarily or not, its chart still suggests a huge upside. For the past 5 1/2 months, BEL has been moving sideways inside the P4-P6 channel. With its current price at P4.70, it may ideally have some P1.30 upside or 21.67% gain potential as far as the channel is concerned. The chart below suggests that BEL has a huge gap to fill from P4.70 to P6.

BEL has been dormant lately moving sideways just between the 4.68 to 4.75 channel for the past month. However, with the huge potential and promise that the properties sector is showing, BEL may wake up real soon. Its RSI suggests that it is way too far from overbought and in fact nearing oversold thus the bulls may just push this stock up soon. BEL however might not be good for short term play but as far as potential is concerned, this is a good stock.

ALI and BEL are just a few of the many stocks that show good potential in the properties sector. With the market still focused on the mining and oil industry and with mixed emotions because of the "ghost month", it may take some time for these two to move. The properties sector is already starting to build some momentum with the fundamentals that the Philippine market is getting so this sector may have next wonder worker especially now that the mining and oil sector is getting too overbought.

Ayala Land Inc. (ALI): Breakout Bound

The chart below shows that Ayala Land Inc. (ALI) is at its 3 month resistance at 16.48. With the properties sector winning some significant market sentiment lately as evident in the price action of stocks such as FLI and VLL, ALI is bound to breakout soon.

So how confident ALI could be? ALI has been consistently rising for more than a week and yet its RSI suggests that it is not yet oversold. With the properties sector bound to breakout and ALI owning the biggest chunk on the said sector, it might push the said sector up. How ALI will do will significantly affect the properties sector.

ALI also bagged a P3.5 billion sale and lease of 7.7 hectares of state property at Negros topping rival SM Prime. The said sale is prompted to provide more jobs, improve the tourism in the province, and Negrenses will enjoy a better kind of life.

Personal Disclosure: Sold PWR for a loss due to the crappy internet connection and bought ALI at 16.42. I bought PWR at 3.05 last Thursday and should have sold it at 3.30 at Friday but failed to do so because of the lag on the broker's system. I ended up selling it at 2.98 and 2.95. Looking forward to buy more ALI if the resistance is broken.

Manila Mining (MA): Breakout Bound?

The long wait for Manila Mining's (MA) run could finally be over. MA went up by 0.0050 points or 9.62% to close at P0.057 and reach a new high. MA has already broken out from its triangle formed in the past two months and has breached its uptrend resistance as shown in the chart below.

Now that MA is already in an uncharted territory, anything is possible. LC and PWR were phenomenal after making new highs with LC roughly doubled in just two months while PWR nearing 600% gain in just a week! With no resistances to stop MA, it could follow LC and PWR's footsteps and could be the next wonder worker in the days or weeks to come.

Fundamentally, gold continues to do very well internationally which puts the ball back into the mining sector. Gold went up by 2.90 points in the global market despite of the heavy selling that sent the stocks down to a new low for July. Dow Jones Index (DJI), S&P 500, and Nasdaq all went down while gold and oil remained positive.

The positive sentiment towards the oil and mining sector could push MA (and other stocks in the sector) up. A little caution must be exercised though as MA's RSI is indicating that it is already a little overbought and correction or selling might just be around the corner.

PSE Index: Breakout or Breakdown?

For two and a half months, the Philippine Stock Exchange Index or PSEi has been moving sideways. It hit an all time high of more than 4,450 last July 6 but went down from then on. The chart below shows that PSEi is currently resting at its past resistance. Hopefully, such resistance will turn into a support so PSEi could bounce and head back up again.

Aside from turning the resistance into a possible support, PSEi is also resting on 38.2% Fibonacci in reference to its last correction. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also showing some good signs as it is not overbought. However, the MACD is showing some bearish signs.

A little caution must be practiced because, despite PSEi's good technical position, the fundamentals aren't looking great. The debt crisis that the European markets are experiencing are having an impact on the global markets. The Dow Jones Index manifested such crisis by dropping 151.44 points or -1.20%. Nasdaq also dropped 57.44 points or -2.0%, while oil continues to tumble down.

Gold might push PSEi up aside from its good technical position. Gold increased by more than 6 points which might have triggered the 11% increase in LC. If gold continues to do such wonder, the mining and oil sector will remain as a safe bet for both traders and investors. The mining and oil sector is also on an uptrend.

If PSEi's technical position won't hold, it may sink to as low as 4200, its long term uptrend support, a deep dive from its current value at 4375. PSE's chart is showing some bearish divergence so there might be a good chance for it to drop.

War of Telcos: GLO vs TEL-DGTL

The PLDT (TEL)-Digitel (DGTL) merger created buzz in the stock market and in the consumer world drawing in mixed emotions and reactions. Many felt threatened now that PLDT owns more than half of the unlimited call and text pioneer in the Philippines. But is it really so? Here's my insights about the merger.

The recent TEL-DGTL merger was likened to the BDO-Equitable PCI Bank merger in 2006. When BDO bought PCI Equitable Bank in 2006, they released a statement that Equitable PCI Bank would remain and operate as a separate entity but later on became Banco de Oro Unibank and Equitable PCI Banks were slowly turned into BDO branches.

Manny Pangilinan said that Sun Cellular would retain its existing features yet many people are pessimistic and think that the unlimited call and text will be gone soon.

I don't think that the unlimited call and text features of Sun Cellular will be phased out in the merger because such feature is the lifeline of Sun Cellular and the same feature will further boost PLDT's subscriber population. Though in a sense that a huge part of the competition has been killed, Globe still owns a significant part of the market which I believe is strong enough to compete with TEL and DGTL. PLDT has to keep its competitiveness up against Globe and the unlimited call and text feature is an edge.

What's in it for Globe? Globe (GLO) gained market sentiment after the merger. Two days after the merger, TEL's stocks decreased (probably because of profit taking) while DGTL's continued to sink while GLO's still went up.

What prompted the market sentiment for GLO? In my opinion, GLO is the only company that could neutralize the monopoly of PLDT as of the moment. Globe has approximately 25 million subscribers, quite significant in comparison to PLDT's 41 million and Digitel's 16 million. Though the merger made PLDT own the lion's share of the pie at 57 million, the market sentiment is leaning towards Globe for now and if they can capitalize on the panic that the merger has created, they could give PLDT a run for their money.

Fundamentally, I am staying away from telco stocks right now. First, I find TEL and GLO expensive. Expensive in a sense that for an amount of 2400 or 900 I can buy more shares from different stocks at a cheaper price and for an equal potential. As soon as the telco fever is over, I'm confident that other stocks will follow. Second, other than the merger, telco companies doesn't have much fundamentals. There hasn't been any technological advancements which makes me think that the telco sector is stagnating as of the moment.

Fibonacci Analysis: The Long Overdue Bull Run

Apparently, the much awaited uptrend is already long overdue. Bad news comes one after another which significantly affects PHISIX. Nevertheless, the index has shown signs of life as it remained in the consolidation stage despite the negative turn of events. Quite an achievement so to speak.

I ran a Fibonacci analysis on some stocks (including PHISIX) and found some interesting set ups. The chart below shows that PHISIX is just hovering above 23.6% of Fibonacci which is at 3800. This is applicable to those who are investing in mutual funds and UITFs since these financial entities are strongly affected by the stock market. As soon as PHISIX hits 3800 and bounces back up, it's a good entry point.

The charts below show some good stocks positions for several companies.

PCOR: Many are scared of PCOR because of the dip that it took for the last two months. The chart below shows that PCOR went up as it hit the 50% mark. 50% in Fib is quite strong (in my opinion). It is a little premature to take PCOR but this is definitely worth the look.

JGS: JGS hit the 23.6% mark at 21.5 and went back up. Confirmation is needed as usual to minimize the risk. The chart also shows that 21.5 is a resistance that might turn into a support if JGS would bounce back up. Other than Fibonacci, JGS is also resting on its uptrend support.

JFC: JFC is nearing to hit the 23.6% resistance at 85. If JFC will break it, it will indicate some strong bullish momentum. On a short term perspective, JFC is consolidating. It's undecided as to where to go so again, waiting for a confirmation would be wise before coming up with a decision.

EDC: EDC hit 23.6% at P6. Considering that this has some bullish momentum, this would most likely bounce back up. EDC got some good reviews for the year so I think that at P6, it is a good buy.

AC: Just like JFC, AC is up to challenge the 23.6% resistance at 360. AC was hovering around the 355-360 mark recently and should it get past 360, it will signal some strong buying.

Fibonacci Retracements only suggest where the price would possibly go next but doesn't exactly tell where it would head. It still needs confirmation of price action, other indicators, and fundamentals to further boost its reliability. Nevertheless, I remain optimistic on these stocks for 2011 and the bulls are just waiting at the corner.

The Rainbow After The Rain

After some selling pressure for more than a month, the Philippine Stock Exchange Index (PHISIX or PSEi) is now into the consolidation stage giving signs of a possible uptrend real soon. Some stocks have already broke loose from their short term (in the 1 month downtrend) resistance, some going into consolidation as well while some turned such resistance into supports. However, there are some that continued to go down.

Since the valuations went down for the past weeks, this is a very good time to buy as the much anticipated uptrend is just around the corner. PHISIX is flirting with it's 3900 resistance and as soon as it gains some serious bullish momentum and break such resistance, expect a good number of stocks and PHISIX as well to soar high.

The list entails a lot of Fibonacci retracements and Elliott Wave Theory wave 5 potentials. Elliott Wave Theory's wave 5 is an uptrend or in other words, the value of a particular stock continuing to go up. Fibonacci on the other hand notes some precalculated support/resistance levels that are found to hold true (not all the time but most of the time). If a price hits a Fibonacci support/resistance, it is most likely to reverse.

I have kept a handful of companies in my watch list and picked a few with some really good potential to invest in for at least this year. Most of the MACDs and RSI of such companies are positive indicating some good points of entry. Here's my list:

AC - For the past weeks, AC dropped from around 403 to just a little over 320. For the month of March, AC gained buying pressure as it rose to almost 355. In a two-year reference, AC is hovering above it's two year support and might possibly head into wave 5 of Elliott Wave Theory. My favorite part is seeing it bounce at 38.2% of Fibonacci since January of 2009.

AP - From mid-October of 2008 until this day, AP is on a very strong uptrend gradually yet consistently rising from barely a peso to as high as 35. However, a certain support (from around September of 2009) says that AP's support has turned into a resistance which it is currently challenging right now. Fibonacci suggests that AP might have bounced at 23.6% already (which is a minor support in Fibonacci). As of now, there is no clear indication as to where AP would head next but as soon as it breaks through its resistance at around 32, it's going to be a good buy.

DMC - Technicals are really looking so good for DMC. First, it is resting on a very solid uptrend support and just bounced recently at around 33-34. Second, in a two year span, DMC's position for an Elliott Wave Theory wave 5 is looking really good. For the entry, DMC just broke it's resistance at around 37. It is going to be on its way to challenge its previous high at 40. I'm very optimistic about this one.

JGS - JGS broke its uptrend support and went sideways for the past 2 1/2 months. However, JGS is forming an ascending triangle and should the resistance at around 19.8 will be broken, JGS could go high fast. In a 1 1/2 years span, JGS could enter Elliott Wave Theory wave 5. It needs some confirmation though as MACD is showing selling might just be ahead. JGS has already hit its 38.2% Fibonacci support in a two year reference.

MBT - Another Elliott Wave Theory wave 5 candidate. However, MBT's support for the last 2 years has become its resistance. If it could break its resistance at 72, it will be on its way up, wave 5 might come after all. It is also resting on its 38.2% Fibonacci support. A bounce is more likely.

MEG - From April 2009, MEG is an eye candy for Fibonacci players. MEG is well resting on its 38.2% support, consolidated, and resumed an uptrend. MEG also just bounced from its 2 year uptrend support, quite a solid support that is.

RCB - In nearly two years, RCB just bounced from its 23.6% Fibonacci support. However, on the same span of time, it has just gone below its uptrend support and challenges to break through it. Should RCB break such resistance and turn it back into a support, it will be on its way up.

SCC - Not really much to say about this one. It's uptrend support is very strong. One of my best picks for the year.

SMC - After a strong uptrend, SMC is consolidating as of the moment. Considering all the fundamentals that this company has, SMC remains a strong one for 2011. Confirmation is needed for entry. From the foot of its uptrend late in 2010, SMC is on the 23.6% support of Fibonacci at roughly P160.

SMPH - As of this writing, SMPH just broke out from its downtrend from December of 2010. A support at 10 is somewhat found but as far as Fibonacci is concerned, it might fall down as it hits the 23.6% ceiling. However, in a two year span, SMPH might head into Elliott Wave Theory wave 5. Quite worth looking at.

However, these are all just based on my analysis of the charts and doesn't include fundamentals yet. Always keep in mind that the most important thing in all of these is the price action. Technicals are just signs of the possible behavior and to project the possibility of the direction of the price. If things won't go as expected, bail out. Your decisions will never be right all the time. And lastly, cut hoping (that the price will go up anytime soon). Hoping can lead to false hopes.

MER: Shining Bright

The chart below shows that MER (Meralco) is getting near it's 2-year uptrend support at around the 213-220 range. For the month of February, MER found a strong support at around the 216-220 range but always manages to finish a higher high from 235 to around 240 and its resistance forming a slope signaling an uptrend.

If worse comes to worse and the technicals won't hold true, MER could fall back down to its 5-year uptrend support at around 160.

Fundamentally, MER is a good long term buy. MER has significantly developed under the leadership of Manny Pangilinan in energy production, distribution, and customer care. MER is looking forward for further and massive developments in energy production and distribution in the next 5 years.

To start off, MER is going to put up a pioneering jet fuel/diesel/natural gas plant in Calamba, Laguna set to start on the first quarter of 2012 to produce 120-150 megawatts of power. The company also aims to produce 150 megawatts in 2012, another 150 megawatts in 2013, 600 megawatts in 2014, and 300 megawatts in both 2015 and 2016. MER is also in talks with 2 to 4 groups for possible partnerships in the future and is optimistic that they can offer consumers 5 kilowatt per hour rates.

MER is dancing around the 230 levels right now which for me is a good buy. As soon as their plans will start to come into fruition, MER could go as high as 450 in the next 1 1/2 years based on Fibonacci.

SCC: Going Down?

For a little more than a year, SCC's uptrend support has been so strong. SCC's stock rose from around P40 in January of 2010 to as high as P210 (even higher) in January of 2011. The support was challenged several times yet held firm.

However the chart below signifies that SCC's uptrend support might finally give in. First, the chart shows a rising wedge formation which theoretically signals that a downtrend is coming soon. Second, SCC has breached its seemingly strong uptrend support (encircled in blue).

Though SCC is a strong one, the chart shows the market sentiment. It's price action is starting to consolidate after a gradual yet consistent rise. This could be testing a new support level or heading for a reversal (hopefully, it's the former).

On a personal note, I think that SCC is going to be one of the strong stocks as soon as PHISIX is done with consolidation and resumes an uptrend. The Mining and Oil index is projected to do very good in 2011 and SCC is the leading company in the said index.

SCC's charts shows two things: [1] That it is a very strong stock considering its uptrend support (which was breached possibly because of consolidation of the market), and [2] That it might finally break the support and go for a nosedive. How deep? Nobody knows. SCC could go as low as P160, P140, or P110 based on Fibonacci's 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8%.

A bold prediction on SCC: As soon as this gets through the previous uptrend support which is at around the P210-P215 range, it will gain momentum and rise fast. Right now, I think that it would just be wise to buy on rallies and sell on dips (or sell on resistance).

DMC: Feels Really Good to be Home

This is the right time to do some stocks window shopping. The market is in the consolidation state for almost the whole first quarter and a correction is just waiting around the corner. While looking around for some potentially good stocks, I have stumbled upon DMC.

The chart below shows that DMC is getting near it's two year uptrend support at around 30ish. If the support holds, DMC is bound for another strong uptrend. In approximately 2 years time, DMC rose from barely a peso to as high as P35 or 3500%. Should such slope and momentum continue, DMC could go as high as P50 or even P55.

The chart below shows where DMC stands in the Elliott Wave Theory. Though not as steep as it should be, I think that DMC is already at wave 4 and wave 5 is coming up soon. DMC is also at its 23.6% Fibonacci support level. Though 23.6% doesn't hold strong in comparison to 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8%, it is still a valid support. Considering that DMC is in consolidation and it's short support holding quite well, I think that makes 23.6% valid.

Fundamental wise, DMC has just bagged in 3 contracts for 2011 worth billions. This news actually prompted me to give DMC a look.

I still don't think that DMC's fundamentals is that strong to push it back up. However DMC is really looking good technically and just like most of the stocks that I'm looking at, a few more fundamentals are needed to trigger an uptrend.

Megawide: Developing Properties, Developing Potential

Megawide Construction Corp. is the first company to go public this 2011. Just in case you're not familiar with what this company is, Megawide is one of the biggest and fastest growing engineering and construction firms in the Philippines today. Megawide accounts for 70% of the residential condominium projects of the Sy family's SMDC. Other than SM's projects, Megawide's clients include Belle Corporation, Antel Group, Suyen Corp. (owner of Bench), Prince Jun Development Group, Bellevue Hotel Group, Keppelland Realty, Malate Bayview Development Group, and Goldland Properties and Dynamic Realty.

In it's move to go public, Megawide opened 34% of its company's total stock to the public. In it's opening day, Megawide (listed as MWIDE in PSE) offered P7.84 per share.

Being it's top client, Henry Sy's SM bought 64% of MWIDE's total shares leaving only 36% left for public consumption. SM is having several construction plans for 2011 all over the Philippines which means more projects for Megawide. Never mind Sy and SM owning part of Megawide to cut costs in their projects, Megawide is going to have a very busy year and that's all that matters.

Rumors also has it that SMC plans to buy into MWIDE. SMC's diversification plans fits well with MWIDE as SMC is planning to get into PPP (public private partnerships) this year. Should SMC get into MWIDE sooner or later, that would further boost MWIDE up. SMDC and SMC are strong enough to lift MWIDE up. Aside from SMC, Phinma and Ben Chan of Bench are also rumored to take part of MWIDE.

Lastly, there are 11 PPP reported to start this year for a rough total of $200 billion. Being one of the biggest construction and engineering firms, expect Megawide to get into the negotiation and contract talks in at least one of these 11 projects.

Megawide was established in 1997 by De La Salle University civil engineers Michael Cosiquien and Edgar Saavedra and became a P2 billion company since then and accounts for 20% of high rise residential property construction business. Turnover is expected to double to P4 billion this year.

My personal note is that I think that MWIDE is still undervalued considering that SM bought more than half of it's shares. If SMC would push through in acquiring shares and with their PPP plans, MWIDE could be worth a lot more than its IPO price.

BPI Technical Analysis: Northbound?

As PHISIX is nearing the 3600 support or probably going to rebound real soon (hopefully), BPI is approaching it's own support as well. In the chart below, BPI bounced back 4 times already in it's uptrend support in barely a year and is bound to hit it again for the fifth time. Should PHISIX bounce back, BPI could go north as well.

The good thing is that two other indicators are saying that BPI might head the right way. MACD and RSI (both encircled in red below) indicates that BPI is going to be a good buy (hope it's good buy and not goodbye). It's RSI is just well within the range.

However, should BPI's support fail to hold, there is a long way to go down to it's all time uptrend support. In the chart below, BPI's next support is going to be at around P37-P39, a decrease of approximately 25% in it's current value.

BPI doesn't have much fundamentals to back up it's technical probabilities and to gain some serious buying sentiment. Hence, though the chart looks promising, caution is still highly advised.

Right now BPI is roaming around the P52-54 range and has somewhat found a resistance at around P62-P65. 20% gain really doesn't sound that bad and the good thing is that if BPI could bounce back from it's 1 year uptrend support, it might break the P65 resistance and continue to go up. Wishful thinking that is but there's really no harm in keeping an eye on this one.

PSE: Buying Opportunity or a Trap?

Dow Jones finished green, RP's 7.2% GDP's effect finally realized, and it's Chinese New Year. PHISIX have found more reasons to finally get up and it did. PHISIX went up by 60.58 points (1.58%) to finish at 3891.07 for the day. Sounds and looks really good.

However, the graph below shows that PHISIX is resting on some support. Apparently, it will take at least a buy or two to send PHISIX back up to it's resistance (hopefully it won't break it's support) so a buying spree is highly probable in the next day or until the weekend.

Three possible scenarios:

1.) PHISIX will continue to go green and break it's mini resistance in days to come. This is what everybody wants.

2.) PHISIX will continue the trend.

3.) Whipsaw. PHISIX will go down setting up a bull trap for a number of buyers.

Summing it all up, I still don't see any good reason to invest at this point but it might be a good set up for a swing trade. Selling might persist in a week or more before the big rebound so as always, caveat.